Live Blog Post, 9:00: Election Updates pt. 4

And it looks like its winding down.
18,302,924 Ahmadinijad
570,174 Rezaee
248,431 Karroubi
8,929,232 Mousavi

Ahmadinijad very well might be about to break the 50% margin if he hasn't already. In one hour it will basically be completely safe to say from a statistical basis who has won. Mousavi apparently has begun to complain about the way precincts were reported. As if the Guardian Council will care.

Live Blog Post, 8:00: Election Updates pt. 4

New numbers:
16,974,382 Ahmadinijad
8,124,690 Mousavi
508,796 Rezaee
228,431 Karroubi

CNN has called it for Ahmadinijad. But really, they are calling it as a landslide? Honestly, even a schoolchild can see that the precinct reporting so far is biased. I still am not officially calling it for Ahmadinijad, but I won't lie, the prospects are grim for Mousavi.

Live Blog Post, 7:00: Iranian Demographics and Updates, pt. 2

However, what I described in my previous post amounts to 33% of the populace. And the vast majority of Iran's 51% Persians don't live in the provinces. They live in cities.

Crude breakdown again, list of cities:

• Tehran, Metro: 14,000,000-18,000,000 This is one of the most disputed statistics probably in the population of a major world city, I have seen official numbers go up to 21 million for Tehran Metro, but I would say the 14 mil mark is probably more accurate.
  
• Tehran needs to be broken up into two major precincts however, North Tehran and South Tehran. North along with most of Central, East, and West Tehran is primarily populated by the liberal to the the moderates. Typical Reformist rank and file and strong Mousavi
• South Tehran is a poor district however, filled with parents whose children died in the Iran-Iraq war and has been bribed by Ahmadinijad also. Strongly religious and anti-West, the hardliners have controlled this area since the Revolution. This is the face of Iran the US has seen most often.
  
• Tehran probably will boil down to 67% Mousavi, 33% Ahmadinijad assuming no fraud
• Isfahan, Metro: 3,430,353. Another divided city, Isfahan is the home to religious pragmatists. Conservatives in values, they are more driven by practicality and thus strongly backed Ahmadinijad's original campaign 4 years ago. Now that support has diminished with the lack of legitimate results for the economy.
• Isfahan is also a North/South division except the inverse of Tehran. Early polling put the two candidates neck and neck so honestly 50%-50% is the fairest projection.
• Mashad, Metro: 2,868,350. The site of a major Shi'a pilgrimage site Mashad is actually surprising not a hardliner stronghold. 65%-35% in favor of Mousavi.
• Tabriz, Metro: 1,597,319. The provincial capital of East Azerbaijan, this is reformist territory naturally. Also, I recommend their rugs. High quality stuff. 70%-30% in favor of Mousavi.
• Shiraz: 1,204,882. A short drive from the 2500 year old capital, Persepolis, Shiraz has tended to be an intellectual town. As for their politics, its not clear cut like with Isfahan. It is fair to say however that Ahmadinijad does not have a majority for sure. 60%-40% in favor of Mousavi.
• Karaj: 1,377,450. This city is practically Tehran Metro. I mean its closer than Tehran's airport and you can take a subway line to it from the center of Tehran. Guess what I am guessing this will be: 70%-30% Mousavi.
• Qom: 951,918. This city is more important for its history and its purpose than for population. It is the one city in Iran that is a total Ahmadinijad shoo-in. It contains the largest religious seminaries (yes, thats multiple) in Iran and was the favorite town of Khomeini. 80%-20% Ahmadinijad. And I am probably being too nice to Mousavi with that result.
• The other cities will probably lean towards Mousavi. ~55% support overall in the cities.

You use this as data at your own risk. Its mostly crude guesses because Iran lacks a lot of hard numbers.

Most recent numbers:
15,913,256 Ahmadinijad, 7,526,117 Mousavi, 470,549 Rezaee, 212,855 Karroubi
Official new turnout: ~37 Million (80%) Edit: ~38 Million
Insiders in Mousavi's campaign are saying that precinct reporting is being manipulated to make Ahmadinijad appear much higher than he is and that non of the pro-Mousavi precincts have reported.

Live Blog Post, 5:45: Iranian Demographics and Updates, pt. 1

Now up to this point, it appears that the majority of the votes are provincial votes. The provinces in Iran refers mainly to the countryside and rural areas (yes cities are obviously in provinces too, but thats what we call our favorite villagers). Reformists rarely gain inroads here and while it is hard for me to actually find numbers to back up most of the following, understand that demographics in Iran is basically guestimation for election results.

Some key facts about Iran (Primarily from the CIA world fact book):

• Iran is arguably the most highly diverse country in its region. Non-Arab, it is commonly viewed as Persian. However, this is not truly fair either. Only 51% of Iran is Persian (Persian/Median descent). The rest is composed of 24% Azeris (same ethnicity as the Azeri turks in Azerbaijan), 8% Gilaki and Mazandaranis (our lovely Caspian tribes that give us our summer cabins), 7% Kurds (same people in Turkey, Syria, Iraq, relatively less oppression one could say), 3% Arabs (south by Iraq mainly), 2% Balouch, 2% Lurs, 2% Turkmen, and 1% other.
• Religion wise, its pretty not diverse. 90% Shi'a Muslim, 8% Sunni Muslim (the southeast and Kurdistan), 2% Non-Muslim (Notably, Zoroastrian, Jew, Christian, and Baha'i although Baha'i is illegal)
• 67% of the population is urbanized

So now for a very crude break down of the provincial votes:

• Ahmadinijad completely dominates this portion of the country, with bribes and oil money gifts keeping villagers loyal to them
• Insulting as this may sound, the villagers never have been much for critically looking at the benefits they got from the Islamic republic. Instead they were praised under Khomeini's time as the model for the future of Iran. Ahmadinijad with his populism and religious values basically locked down these regions.
• Ethnicity wise, Ahmadinijad controls the Persian villagers and probably most of the Arabs, Balouchi, and Lurs (the southern portion of the provinces)
  
• Mousavi has support most likely with the Kurds, Azeris, Mazandaranis, Gilekis and some elements of the Persian villagers hurt worst by terrible inflation. His leads however are not nearly as high here and support is only for economic reasons
  
• Winner of the provinces therefore falls to Ahmadinijad, which was the majority of the votes announced in my previous post.

New election data:

• Ahmadinijad (Hard-liner, incumbent): 14,011,664/66.19%
• Mousavi (Reformist, primary challenger): 6,575,844/31.06%
• Rezaee (Hard-liner): 397,177/1.88%
• Karroubi (Reformist): 185,578/0.88%
  
  Total counted votes: Disputed. (I can't find a single figure that seems to be accurate on the total number so we are just going to have to wait it out for now)
  

Live Blog Post, 5:30: Green Revolution 2009 (Iran's Election)

So, I haven't posted much in a while, because I have yet to find anything worth posting after that first humorous rant. However this time, the subject matter as you probably have surmised is much more serious. Iran's elections ended approximately 3 hours ago, and there is still no real decisive result as far as I am concerned unless the idiotic projections that are being stated now magically become final results. Because Iran's elections are possibly the most important elections this year for US foreign policy over the next half-decade and because of my own Iranian descent the next few posts will be a summary of the election results and important details to know.

What we know as of now:

• Official reports have announced Iran's incumbent, Mahmoud Ahmadinijad as victor with a ridiculous 15 million to 5 million margin of the 47.3% total votes. (http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2009/06/2009612195749149733.html)
• Both Ahmadinijad and Mir-Hossein Mousavi have declared victory around midnight in Tehran time, with Mousavi originally boasting 65% of the vote. (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8098305.stm)
  
• Mousavi has since brought up allegations of election fraud, saying his pollwatchers were banned from entering certain polling places, crowds were turned away in North Tehran, paper ran out for the ballots, etc. (BBC World Service Radio)
  
• There was an estimated 70-80% turnout (32 million I am being told), the largest turnout ever in Iranian history (Various sources)
• The IRNA (Iranian News Agency) has insisted on already calling the election for Ahmadinijad, even when only 35% of the polls were counted.

Now what I intend to do is to break down Iranian politics piece by piece as the polls update and see if there is any hope left for the reformist factions. Oh, and in the interest of transparency, in case it wasn't already obvious, I am a proud supporter of the reformists and Mir-Hossein Mousavi.

EDIT: Oh and I thank a good friend for keeping me up to date for stats. Crazy election following buddy.