Live Blog Post, 7:00: Iranian Demographics and Updates, pt. 2

However, what I described in my previous post amounts to 33% of the populace. And the vast majority of Iran's 51% Persians don't live in the provinces. They live in cities.

Crude breakdown again, list of cities:

• Tehran, Metro: 14,000,000-18,000,000 This is one of the most disputed statistics probably in the population of a major world city, I have seen official numbers go up to 21 million for Tehran Metro, but I would say the 14 mil mark is probably more accurate.
  
• Tehran needs to be broken up into two major precincts however, North Tehran and South Tehran. North along with most of Central, East, and West Tehran is primarily populated by the liberal to the the moderates. Typical Reformist rank and file and strong Mousavi
• South Tehran is a poor district however, filled with parents whose children died in the Iran-Iraq war and has been bribed by Ahmadinijad also. Strongly religious and anti-West, the hardliners have controlled this area since the Revolution. This is the face of Iran the US has seen most often.
  
• Tehran probably will boil down to 67% Mousavi, 33% Ahmadinijad assuming no fraud
• Isfahan, Metro: 3,430,353. Another divided city, Isfahan is the home to religious pragmatists. Conservatives in values, they are more driven by practicality and thus strongly backed Ahmadinijad's original campaign 4 years ago. Now that support has diminished with the lack of legitimate results for the economy.
• Isfahan is also a North/South division except the inverse of Tehran. Early polling put the two candidates neck and neck so honestly 50%-50% is the fairest projection.
• Mashad, Metro: 2,868,350. The site of a major Shi'a pilgrimage site Mashad is actually surprising not a hardliner stronghold. 65%-35% in favor of Mousavi.
• Tabriz, Metro: 1,597,319. The provincial capital of East Azerbaijan, this is reformist territory naturally. Also, I recommend their rugs. High quality stuff. 70%-30% in favor of Mousavi.
• Shiraz: 1,204,882. A short drive from the 2500 year old capital, Persepolis, Shiraz has tended to be an intellectual town. As for their politics, its not clear cut like with Isfahan. It is fair to say however that Ahmadinijad does not have a majority for sure. 60%-40% in favor of Mousavi.
• Karaj: 1,377,450. This city is practically Tehran Metro. I mean its closer than Tehran's airport and you can take a subway line to it from the center of Tehran. Guess what I am guessing this will be: 70%-30% Mousavi.
• Qom: 951,918. This city is more important for its history and its purpose than for population. It is the one city in Iran that is a total Ahmadinijad shoo-in. It contains the largest religious seminaries (yes, thats multiple) in Iran and was the favorite town of Khomeini. 80%-20% Ahmadinijad. And I am probably being too nice to Mousavi with that result.
• The other cities will probably lean towards Mousavi. ~55% support overall in the cities.

You use this as data at your own risk. Its mostly crude guesses because Iran lacks a lot of hard numbers.

Most recent numbers:
15,913,256 Ahmadinijad, 7,526,117 Mousavi, 470,549 Rezaee, 212,855 Karroubi
Official new turnout: ~37 Million (80%) Edit: ~38 Million
Insiders in Mousavi's campaign are saying that precinct reporting is being manipulated to make Ahmadinijad appear much higher than he is and that non of the pro-Mousavi precincts have reported.